Earlier this offseason, former Yankees closer Clay Holmes signed a three-year contract with the team's cross-town rival. The Mets and Holmes reached an agreement on December 9th, 2024, after extensive discussions. Although Holmes has made his name as a closer who can shut opposing hitters down, he does not plan to come out of the bullpen with the Mets and has instead returned to his origins as a starting pitcher. That may leave you asking, will Holmes be effective in the role? And the answer is yes. All indications point to Holmes’ transition back to the rotation being successful.
Originally a SP, Clay Holmes’ pro-baseball career began after being selected in the 9th round of the 2011 draft by the Pirates. Holmes was drafted as the #1 high school RHP in Alabama, and he began his MiLB career as a SP. He remained a starter during most of his tenure with the Pirates, only transitioning to a reliever during the 2019 season, before being traded to the Yankees in 2021.
During his time with the Pirates, Holmes pitched in the Minor Leagues from 2012-2018, while making occasional jumps between Pittsburgh’s AAA and MLB rosters. In 2019, Holmes pitched entirely out of the bullpen with the Major League team (35 games). During the entirety of Holmes’ MiLB tenure, in which he started 114 games (134 appearances) and pitched 584.2 innings, he owned a 3.63 ERA with opposing hitters batting just .245.
While his MiLB statistics may not be directly indicative of MLB success, they show he has the stamina to handle a starting role. The Mets front office appears to be confident in Holmes’ ability to go deep into games as well. When asked about the Mets’ plans to utilize Holmes in 2025, President of Baseball Operations David Stearns made it clear that there are no inning limits for Holmes, just monitoring and routine check-ins throughout the season. In referring to his transition back to the rotation, Stearns reinforced his belief in Holmes’ dedication and ability, stating “He’s going to do everything in his power to make it a success”.
Holmes' agent B.B. Abbot added, “(Holmes) has long wanted a chance to go back to starting”. Holmes has shown the ability to adjust to new roles in the past going from a starter to a middle innings guy, then from his middle inning relief role to a closing job. Now 6 years removed from his last MLB start, he has more than enough ability to adapt and become an ace atop the Mets rotation. His arsenal and pitch movement profiling will certainly help him do so.
ARSENAL
Since 2021, Holmes has owned a 2.69 ERA in 217.2 IP with 238 SO. In 2024 Holmes pitched to a 3.14 ERA and a 3.02 FIP while averaging 9.7 SO/9. A big part of his success as a reliever in recent years has come from his amazing arsenal. Holmes’ pitch mix is built on a combination of power pitches that induce weak contact. His sinker, slider, and sweeper give him the ability to attack both sides of the plate while keeping hitters off balance.
Holmes features his sinker as his main pitch, however, during the past 2 seasons his usage of the pitch dwindled. In 2023, Holmes threw his sinker 69.5% of the time, while in 2024, he threw this pitch just 56.3% of the time. He averages 96.6 MPH with the sinker, with 14.5 inches of induced arm side break and 4.3 inches of induced vertical break (25.2 inches of vertical drop with gravity). The movement profile of his sinker places Holmes 13th in the majors in total comparable movement with 5.2 inches, which is essentially a measurement of how a pitch moves in relation to other pitches of the same type (within 2 MPH, 0.5 feet of extension/release). While his sinker was hit around last year with opponents batting .317 against it, with an RVAL of -5, the pitch itself has more than enough movement to be effective with the proper honing.
Holmes’ slider, on the other hand, is already elite. He threw the pitch, his second most frequented, 23.0% of the time in 2024. Easily his best pitch this past season, Holmes’s slider had an RVAL of 6 with opponents batting only a whopping .133 against the pitch, and slugging an astoundingly low .289. Holmes’ slider was one of MLB’s best, inducing -4.4 inches of vertical break (40.4 inches of vertical drop with gravity) and 2.4 inches of glove-side break. The slider ranked 10th in MLB in total comparable movement with an amazing 6.6 inches.
Holmes’ usage of his sweeper wasn’t far behind that of the slider last year, with the pitch being thrown 20.5% of the time. While his sweeper accumulated an RVAL of 0, opponents were kept off balance, batting .172 against the pitch, and slugging just .202. In terms of movement, Holmes’ sweeper is perhaps his best pitch. In 2024, he induced on average -8.0 inches of vertical break (47.4 inches of vertical drop with gravity) with 16.8 inches of glove-side movement. Holmes’ sweeper ranked 1st in MLB in total comparable movement with 6.7 inches.
For context, here's what the movement on Holmes’ pitches looks like:
(Via @SNYtv on X)
Additionally, the Mets front office and coaching staff anticipate Holmes adding another pitch to his arsenal, perhaps a changeup. It will be an evolving process throughout the 2025 season, but Holmes’ repertoire will compete in a National League landscape packed with talent.
Stearns has said of Holmes’ pitch mix, that he believes “The arsenal should work against both sides of the plate". Stearns further added, "He has the variety of stuff to turn over the lineup multiple times”. In 2024, the average exit velocity of batted balls against Holmes was just 88.8 MPH. The All-Star also pitched to a hard-hit% of 36.5 placing him within the 69th percentile. Holmes will also benefit from his elite ground ball percentage, 64.6% in 2024, placing him within the 100th percentile in MLB. The ability to consistently induce soft contact on the ground is one of the best tools a SP can have. With a strong infield defense behind him, Holmes looks to be very successful this upcoming season.
There is no question about Holmes’ role on the team either, as he will be slotted in the Mets rotation come opening day. Stearns has reinforced that fact, saying during an interview, “He’s in our rotation. We believe he’s a starter”. Stearns has additionally reinforced that this is not just a temporary project, rather that the Mets view Holmes as a potential top of the rotation arm.
EXPECTATIONS
While it may take a few outings or even a few weeks for Holmes to settle into the rotation, there should not be a low bar set for the Mets pitcher. He has the stuff and stamina to go deep into ball games and keep his team in winnable situations. Steamer projects Holmes with an above-average stat line with 144 IP, a 3.52 ERA, a 3.69 FIP, and 1.9 fWAR. Holmes could very well earn an All-Star appearance as well in his first year back as a SP.
Not only will Holmes' advanced pitch mix position him for success, but he will also work closely with Mets esteemed pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. Under Hefner's leadership in 2024 the Mets pitching staff ranked as the 3rd lowest in team BAA, 5th in team SO, 5th lowest in team homers allowed, 3rd lowest in total hits allowed, 8th in wins, and 15th in ERA. Holmes will also work closely with the Mets medical staff to minimize injury and monitor his progress throughout his transition to the rotation.
The only thing potentially holding Holmes back from reaching his full potential are control issues. In the past, he has had trouble throwing his pitches for strikes, with a BB% of 8.1 and a 3.1 BB/9 in 2024. However, this has not stopped Holmes from being elite, and shouldn't affect him too much out of the starter role. Regardless, if Holmes can throw strikes more consistently in 2025, he will be virtually untouchable.
As pitchers and catchers begin to report for spring training it will be exciting to see how Holmes prepares for the season. This is the time when he will experiment with new pitches, likely a changeup, and build his stamina for the upcoming season. Fans should remember not to focus too much on the outcome of his spring training appearances, but on how Holmes is pitching (location, pitch movement, etc.).
Holmes isn’t the first reliever to attempt a transition like this either. In recent years many relievers turned starters have made waves in MLB. If Holmes is successful, he would join the likes of Reynaldo López, Garrett Crochet, Zack Littell, and others as the next RP turned SP success story. He certainly has all the talent to do so. It's safe to say fans can very likely expect a “breakout” season from Clay Holmes in 2025.
(Statistics found in: baseball-reference.com, mlb.com, milb.com, fangraphs.com, baseballsavant.com)