At the start of each fantasy season there are new draft rankings, young stars who have burst onto the scene, and aging players who have declined significantly. But it seems to me that players who spent the end of the previous season injured are often forgotten. Obviously stars who are injured keep their place on the draft leaderboards (if their injury isn’t too great that is). On the other hand, those who are solid contributors or even boom or bust picks remain undrafted, waiting to be picked up by a championship caliber team midway through the season. I’m here to prevent that from happening, and make sure you don’t miss out on these types of players.
Because these pitchers have been injured, and haven’t had the opportunity to finish their last season, I will not be using their 3-year averages in their evaluation (though this is the best metric to use in evaluating a fantasy player's potential). I've also chosen to use Rotowire projections for each pitcher, as it is my preferred projections system. I think other projection systems tend to over project any given players stats, and that is not in our best interest. Additionally, I've chosen not to include Sandy Alcantara, Jacob DeGrom, or any other pitchers who have been injured but are ready for opening day (with the exception of McClanahan).
In terms of analysis, each player in this article will be listed by their name followed by their average draft position (ADP), ESPN position, and Yahoo position. I will also be using CBS Sports’ numbers for past fantasy value.
With that being said, here are 9 starting pitchers who finished the 2024 season on the IL, but are ready to be contributors to a competitive fantasy team:
*The listed ADP for each given player is as of 2/17/25
Must draft:
Spencer Strider (126th ADP, 138th ESPN, 130th Yahoo)
Estimated return: May 2
(Via fantasypros.com)
Even though he had UCL repairment surgery on April 12th, 2024, Spencer Strider has remained high on many fantasy managers radars. And it’s no surprise that he has! In his last full season (2023), Strider put up a total of 576.5 FPTS, while racking up 281 SO in just 186.7 IP. His elite SO numbers give Strider immense value when healthy, and makes him an intriguing draft pick while hurt.
Strider is one of the few guys on this list who will be taken in the beginning-middle rounds, if drafted at all. It’s up to you whether or not you take a flyer on him, but I’d decide based on confidence in his ability to rehab. Strider has undergone UCL repairment surgery before (back in his college days), and we’ve seen him excel regardless. The challenge that comes with this surgery for Strider, is maintaining his sliders effectiveness. In 2023 it was by far his best pitch, with an RVAL of 12. Will the slider be the same after UCL surgery? That remains to be seen, but I’d bet on Strider’s abilities and wager a middle round pick on the returning ace. I think it’s safe to say Strider is a low-risk, high reward type pick.
Rotowire projections: 15 GS, 89 IP, 125 K, 4.04 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Shane McClanahan (132nd ADP, 182nd ESPN, 133rd Yahoo)
Estimated return: Start of Season
(Via fantasypros.com)
Similar to Strider, Shane McClanahan is a likely draft pick in your league, and that's no surprise. In his last full season, (2022), McClanahan pitched to a 2.54 ERA with 194 SO in 166.3 IP, while racking up 490 FPTS. Before he was sidelined with Tommy John surgery in late 2023, McClanahan posted 331.5 FPTS in 115 IP. Even after being out for well over a year, it's impossible to not at least be intrigued by McClanahan's return.
McClanahan, while not quite reaching Strider’s level of dominance in the SO category, certainly generates a lot of whiffs of his own. His changeup features as McClanahan's best pitch, boasting a 54.5 Whiff% in 2023. That paired with his run conservative style of pitching makes McClanahan an interesting option for fantasy managers. This has been McClanahan’s second Tommy John surgery, so the health flag is certainly raised, but does the risk outweigh the potential rewards? I’d say no, and risk drafting McClanahan in the early-mid rounds. He has ace level potential, something that’s too great to pass up on. Just like Strider, McClanahan classifies as a low-risk, high-reward pitcher.
Rotowire projections: 26 GS, 147 IP, 160 K, 3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
B-tier:
Brandon Woodruff (213th ADP, 217th ESPN, 223rd Yahoo)
Estimated return: May 1st
(Via fantasypros.com)
With Brandon Woodruff we are starting to get towards the late round picks. Woodruff was sidelined in late 2023 with capsule repair surgery in his right shoulder. His build up has been slow as a result, since shoulder surgery is much less predictable than Tommy John. However, if Woodruff recovers from his high intensity throwing sessions well, we could see him on the mound in early-mid May.
Woodruff has been ultra valuable as a fantasy starter in the past, posting 214 FPTS in a shortened 2023 season (11 starts), and 450 & 485.5 FPTS respectively in 2022 and 2021. Woodruff is elite at run prevention, with his highest ERA since 2020 coming in at 3.05 in 2022. He featured 4 pitches in 2022 with an RVAL of 3+, and also owns a career 10.4 K/9 and 1.045 WHIP. Woodruff is probably one of the riskier picks on this list because of the nature of his surgery, but I think it’s hard to pass up on a pitcher with such high potential. Consider Woodruff a medium-risk, high-reward type of guy.
Rotowire projections: 19 GS, 114 IP, 115 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Shane Bieber (339th ADP, 305th ESPN, 343rd Yahoo)
Estimated return: June 1
(Via fantasypros.com)
The next pitcher on our list is Shane Bieber, and he falls into the same category as Woodruff: medium-risk, high-reward. Bieber falls into that category because of inconsistency though, not his injury. While Bieber was sidelined with Tommy John surgery in April 2024, he has been making beneficial progress and looks to be ready to go before the All-Star break. In just his first bullpen since Tommy John, Bieber touched 87 MPH with his fastball, not far off of his career average (91-93 MPH).
The reason Bieber falls so high on this list, even with past inconsistencies, comes from the potential value you get with drafting him so late. Just to be clear, the inconsistencies come in IP, not pitching performance. Bieber is consistently good. In 2022, Bieber racked up 545 FPTS in 200 IP. However the following year, he was only able to muster 270.5 FPTS in 128 IP. In picking Bieber you’re betting on him staying healthy after he rehabs from his current injury. Injury risk is always the question with pitchers, but it becomes an even bigger one with Bieber. If you’re confident in your pitching staff throughout your draft, I’d recommend taking a chance and drafting Bieber. Who knows, maybe it pays off!
Rotowire projections: 13 GS, 82 IP, 79 K, 3.18 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Clayton Kershaw (402nd ADP, 319th ESPN, 370th Yahoo)
Estimated return: June 1st
(Via fantasypros.com)
I’m probably a bit higher on Kershaw than I should be, but I think he falls within the B-tier of players on this list. The questions raised with Kershaw don’t only relate to his recovery from knee and toe surgeries, but from his age (36) and role on a stacked Dodgers team. Can Kershaw produce even when healthy? Will he be slotted into the Dodgers rotation?
I think the second question is more easily answered then the first, with a yes. With the Dodgers likely running a 6-man rotation, and having lots of young and inexperienced starters, Kershaw will likely slot into the rotation as a veteran presence for the younger players. As for his production; in his last full year (2023), Kershaw posted 383.5 FPTS with a 2.46 ERA and 137 SO in 131.7 IP. Can fantasy managers expect this type of production from Kershaw this year? I honestly don’t know. But the intrigue is there. His pitches shouldn't be affected to much by a non-arm injury, and he's bounced back from worse in the past. Kershaw could definitely be a valuable arm to any fantasy team in 2025. I’d classify Kershaw as a high-risk, high-reward type guy.
Rotowire projections: 15 GS, 80 IP, 81 K, 2.81 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
C-tier:
Alex Cobb (461st ADP, 474th ESPN, No draft Information from Yahoo)
Estimated return: May 1st
(Via fantasypros.com)
With Alex Cobb, this list starts to get into the “really?” kind of territory. In 2024, Cobb suffered a plethora of injuries, and again experienced hip inflammation coming into 2025 Spring Training. Just like Kershaw, Cobb is on the older side of players (37). He also isn’t particularly a “fantasy ace”. So why include him on this list?
The answer is simple really. Down the line every fantasy team needs consistent starters. Cobb is just that. From 2021-2023, Cobb posted 220, 303.5, and 295.5 FPTS respectively. Not exactly superstar level, but in my opinion, worthwhile to have as a back end fantasy starter. After signing with the Tigers this offseason, Cobb is also back in the much easier AL landscape (his 3 starts with CLE in 2024 don’t really count). I think the biggest questions with Cobb are certainly things to consider during your draft. Can he stay healthy once he returns? How much production can you actually expect from him? Cobb is a medium-risk, medium-reward draft pick.
Rotowire projections: 14 GS, 76 IP, 67 K, 3.79 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Eury Perez (347th ADP, 436th ESPN, 327th Yahoo)
Estimate return: July 18th
(Via fantasypros.com)
The next pitcher on our list, Eury Perez, falls into the C-tier for reasons entirely different from Alex Cobb. Perez has high level ace potential. The question is, will he return in time to provide ace value? Perez missed the entirety of the 2024 season sidelined after UCL reconstruction surgery on April 8th. Just like Strider, Perez relies on his above average slider (9 RVAL in 2023), and his ability to blow hitters away with the fastball (97.5 MPH). Perez is one of the riskier options on this list, but I think his talent is too good to pass up on.
In just 91.3 IP in 2023, Perez racked up 214 FPTS along with 108 SO and a 3.15 ERA. Keep in mind, that was just Perez’s rookie season. Regardless of the injury timetable, the Marlins have been known to be careful with their pitchers, especially upon return from injury. Nevertheless, Perez’s talent will play, and it’s your choice whether or not to be patient with his return. Perez classifies as a medium-risk, high-reward pick.
Steamer projections: 81 IP, 90 K, 3.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
(Rotowire projections unavailable)
Feeling risky?:
Cristian Javier (801st ADP, No draft Information from ESPN, No draft Information from Yahoo)
Estimated return: July 20th
(Via fantasypros.com)
Alright, now we’re getting risky. Cristian Javier has been sidelined since June 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. He’s a risky pick even without the surgery, and his injury just makes it that much more difficult to decide. Not only that, but he’s only going to be around for half the season! In the past Javier has had front end starter fantasy value, but his ERA and SO numbers tend to bounce all over the place.
From 2021-2023, Javier racked up 248, 419, and 349.5 FPTS respectively. In that span, Javier posted ERA’s of 3.55, 2.54, and 3.89. Since 2022 Javier's fastball (91.7 MPH) has remained his best pitch, with RVAL's of 18 and 12 in 2022 and 2023. Will the pitch be just as effective after Tommy John?
Even with all the questions surrounding his return, Javier does provide some intrigue for fantasy managers. While inconsistent, Javier has remained a reliable mid-back end starter in most leagues. It’s becoming increasingly harder to predict the type of season Javier will have, and it will be especially tough in 2025 now that he’s had Tommy John. I’d classify Javier as very high-risk, medium-reward.
Rotowire projections: 10 GS, 58 IP, 58 K, 4.34 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Kyle Bradish (507th ADP, 500th ESPN, No draft information from Yahoo)
Estimated return: Between July 1st and August 1st
(Via fantasypros.com)
And with that, we have reached the last player on our list: Kyle Bradish. Bradish falls low on this list not because of questions on his skill and inconsistency, but on his availability. A return date is unsure for the talented RHP, although Orioles manager Brandon Hyde has offered that Bradish is moving along well in his recovery from mid-season Tommy John in 2024. Regardless of his injury status, Bradish has the fantasy ace potential that warrants taking a flier on.
In 2023, his second year in the Majors, Bradish had a breakout season in which he earned fantasy managers 456 FPTS while pitching to a 2.83 ERA. He also racked up 168 SO in 168.7 IP. In 2024 Bradish seemed to be following his breakout season well, with a 2.75 ERA and 107.5 FPTS in just 39.3 IP. While the injury bug interrupted Bradish’s dominance, I think it's fair to say we can expect him to pick up right where he left off. With an elite 56% ground ball rate, I'd expect Bradish to be affected to a lesser extent than some of the strikeout pitchers on this list. The only question is, when will he return? If all goes accordingly, perhaps Bradish could be a valuable arm to have during a playoff run. I’d consider Bradish a high-risk, high-reward pitcher.
Rotowire projections: 9 GS, 48 IP, 50 K, 3.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Conclusion:
All in all, most of these pitchers (with the exception of Strider and McClanahan) will end up being undrafted. Even so, they could end up being valuable waiver wire pickups for a competitive team down the stretch. And that is precisely why I’d recommend drafting them. What harm comes from taking a risk with your last draft pick and throwing them in an IL slot? You can simply just pick up another bench player or backup starter right after the draft.
Perhaps I am too optimistic with some of these pitchers, but each and every one of them have been valuable fantasy contributors in the past. Is there really a 19th or 20th round pick worth taking over one of these guys? That remains the question. I know I’ll be trying to draft some of these guys (with my later picks of course). From one fantasy baseball manager to another, good luck with your drafts!
(Statistics found in: baseball-reference.com, fangraphs.com, espn.com, rotowire.com, baseballsavant.com, cbssports.com, fantasypros.com)