If you are an avid baseball fan like myself, you’d know of the elite season Tiger’s ace Tarik Skubal had in 2024. His performance since his return from flexor tendon surgery in late 2023 has made him somewhat of a household name.
In 2024, the southpaw won the American League Triple Crown, leading the league in wins (18), ERA (2.39), and strikeouts (228). Skubal was the last to win the award in the AL since Shane Bieber in 2020, who won in a COVID-19-shortened season. The last pitcher to win in a full season was Justin Verlander in 2011, who also won both the AL Cy Young and AL MVP awards. With his amazing 2024 season, Skubal put up just the 31st-ever Triple Crown Season (since 1913 when earned runs and ERA became official stats). Skubal’s level of dominance has put him in elite company joining the likes of all-time greats like Lefty Gomez, Hal Newhouser, and Roger Clemens.
SKUBALS RISE
Drafted in the 9th round of the 2018 draft, Skubal projected as a back end of the rotation guy. Skubal had been selected in the 29th round the year prior by the Diamondbacks but had chosen to return to Seattle University to pitch in 2018, in order to increase his draft stock. He pitched to mixed results, but the Tigers had been impressed enough with his raw stuff to take a flier on Skubal.
After finding success and showing immense amount of promise in the minors, by 2020, Skubal ranked as the Tiger's #4 prospect. He later made his debut during the shortened 2020 season pitching to a 5.37 ERA in 32 innings. The following season Skubal had some growing pains, but began to settle in, posting a 4.34 ERA in 149.1 innings.
At this point, Skubal was poised for a breakout season, and he had just that in 2022 before ending his season early due to flexor tendon issues. In 117.2 IP, Skubal posted a 3.52 ERA and 117 strikeouts. His breakout numbers were supported by a 2.96 FIP, the lowest of young Skubal’s career by over 2 points.
In late 2023, after returning from surgery Skubal began to look like a true ace, posting a 2.80 ERA in 80.1 IP. Since then Skubal has continued to show his excellence and key role on a newly successful Detroit Tigers team.
Coming into 2024 Skubal was the AL Cy Young pick of many, and he didn't disappoint his supporters. Pitching to a Triple Crown, he easily took home the award with a unanimous vote in his favor.
ADJUSTMENTS
Skubal’s increased success over the years can be attributed to the evolution of his pitch mix. The sample size from Skubal’s 2020 season is too small to provide an accurate view of the data, so for our purposes we will start with his 2021 season. In 2021 Skubal threw 7 pitches: 4-seam fastball (42.8%), slider (22.8%), sinker (12.9%), changeup (12.1%), knuckle curveball (6.8%), split finger fastball (2.3%), and cutter (0.3%).
Skubal’s fastball, his most used pitch, had a -9 pitching run value (RVAL) with opposing hitters slugging at a .611 mark and a 52.5% hard hit rate. His second most frequented pitch, his slider, was much more successful. Skubal’s slider held a RVAL of 7, with opposing hitters only slugging .327. Skubal’s sinker was also rather successful with a 5 RVAL and opponents slugging at a .433 mark. Skubal’s changeup was arguably his most valuable pitch, but the rate at which he threw it wasn’t notable enough to bring him immense success. The flashes of excellence that Skubal had shown in 2021, and step forward from his 2020 season, can mostly be attributed to the excellence of his slider and his new sinker (Skubal began throwing the sinker in 2021).
As Skubal came into the 2022 season, he scrapped the splitter and cutter from his arsenal, and began to throw his slider (30.9%) and sinker (21.1%) more often, while he threw his fastball (26.6%) at a much lower rate. It was Skubal’s new approach to attacking opposing batters with his offspeed that led to his breakout in 2022, before his season ended in August with Flexor Tendon issues.
Upon his return from flexor tendon surgery in 2023, Skubal looked like an entirely new pitcher. For the first time in his career it was his slider that was ineffective, while his fastball overpowered opponents. Through just 80.2 IP, Skubal racked up a RVAL of 10 with his fastball (36%), and held opponents to a wildly low slugging of .299. The reason why Skubal’s fastball had become so effective was rather shocking, as he took a large jump in velocity after surgery.
From 2020-2022 Skubal averaged 94.4 MPH on his fastball putting him in the 69th, 67th and 59th percentile in those years respectively. In 2023, however, his average fastball velocity jumped to 95.8 MPH, putting him in the 80th percentile. As a result, Skubal’s K% jumped from 24.5% in 2022 to 32.9% in 2023, ultimately making his slider’s struggles completely null.
In 2024 Skubal finally put it all together, and possibly reached his full potential. He had positive RVAL with every pitch, and his fastball again led the way with 19. Following the trend from 2023 the fastball (32.9%) was again his most frequented pitch, while the slider (14.7%) took somewhat of a backseat. Skubal’s use of the changeup and sinker was also very prominent as changeup usage since 2022 increased by 12%, and his sinker usage in that time remained steadily around 22%.
Skubal’s amazing performance can be attributed to his brilliant pitch design, that took him over 4 years to master, and ultimately led to his likely Cy Young winning 2024 season. In the words of Aaron Judge, Skubal is “the best pitcher in the game right now.”
(Statistics found in: baseball-reference.com, fangraphs.com, baseballsavant.mlb.com)
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